Will The SEC Approve A Bitcoin Spot ETF In 2023? Lawyer Analyzes The Chances

The future of Bitcoin’s price for the rest of the year largely depends on one question: Will a Bitcoin spot ETF be approved in the United States?

Joe Carlasare, a commercial litigator who supports Bitcoin, recently tweeted that he gives a Bitcoin spot ETF a 30-40% chance of launching within a year. He later spoke with the online publication CryptoPotato to explain his reasoning behind those odds.

The Role of Grayscale’s Lawsuit

According to Carlasare, the best hope for launching a Bitcoin spot ETF lies with Grayscale’s lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Last year, Grayscale, the owners of the world’s largest Bitcoin fund, filed a lawsuit against the SEC for denying its ETF application in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner, despite approving similar products in the form of Bitcoin futures ETFs.

The case had its first oral hearing in March, during which the judges seemed more sympathetic to Grayscale’s arguments than the SEC’s. This led certain analysts, including Bloomberg’s Elliot Z. Stein, to assign 70% odds to Grayscale’s victory and, consequently, increase the chances of a spot ETF approval by the end of the year.

However, Carlasare remains less optimistic. He believes that even if Grayscale wins the lawsuit, it doesn’t necessarily mean a spot ETF will be approved.

BlackRock’s Agreement with Coinbase

So far, any applicant attempting to launch a similar product has faced rejection from the SEC. Despite this, there is optimism in the market regarding a recent filing by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. BlackRock has had a high success rate with past applications, making investors hopeful.

However, the SEC labeled BlackRock and Fidelity’s filings as “inadequate” for not disclosing a specific spot Bitcoin exchange with which their respective exchanges (NASDAQ and CBOE) would form a surveillance sharing agreement (SSA). Both firms have since refiled and clarified that their planned SSA will be with Coinbase.

Carlasare has concerns about Coinbase’s representation of a market of “sufficient size” as requested by the SEC. He explains that the SEC requires the market to be large enough so that anyone trying to manipulate the Bitcoin spot market would need to trade on that platform.

Carlasare gives Grayscale a 50% chance of winning the lawsuit against the SEC and Coinbase a 40% chance of being the “secret sauce” needed to get BlackRock’s ETF approved. He considers both sets of odds to be optimistic.

Editor Notes

While the possibility of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved in 2023 is uncertain, it is a significant development that could greatly impact the cryptocurrency market. Investors and enthusiasts are anxiously awaiting the outcome of Grayscale’s lawsuit and BlackRock’s agreement with Coinbase. Stay updated with the latest news and developments in the crypto space on Uber Crypto News.

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